A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
